The agreement of British Prime Minister Theresa May on Brexit has just been rejected by Parliament.

May's agreement lost 432 to 202, a humiliating margin that reveals how unpopular her plan was. In fact, the result was somewhat anticlimatic: MEPs have expressed their opposition to the withdrawal agreement since last May. The forced reaction of May postpone the vote in Decemberbut the delay did not help him to convince members of Parliament to support his plan.

The Brexit deadline, March 29, 2019, is now in only 73 daysand the UK does not have a clear path to follow to get out of the EU.

May's government is going now face a vote of censure as a result of this historic defeat. The Labor Party, the opposition party led by Jeremy Corbyn, is presenting this motion in hopes of reaching a general election. Corbyn said he would try to renegotiate the Brexit deal when he became prime minister, but did not commit to a second referendum – another popular vote on Brexit – despite support within his party.

. @jeremycorbyn submitted a no-confidence motion to the government after their historic defeat at Theresa May's deal. The government has confirmed that this will be the subject of debate and a vote tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/c1hdmLuKrB

– Whips of work (@labourwhips) January 15, 2019

If she survives the censorship vote, May will have to deliver a plan B on a Brexit in Parliament within three days, which MPs can amend, potentially giving them more control over the process. It is unclear whether she will be able to save the deal, but she is still likely to meet quickly with the leaders of the European Union to see if there is something to be done. he can offer.

Above all this looms the possibility of a Brexit without agreement, in which the UK would come out of the European Union without a plan of urgency. The consequences are potentially catastrophic.

May's agreement is rejected. Now what?

The Brexit agreement that has just been scrapped in the British Parliament has defined the terms of the divorce, including a 21-month transition period, and includes a brief political declaration that engages a future undecided relationship between the UK and the United Kingdom.

The May agreement was a compromise – an attempt to mitigate the split with the EU but also a way to break formally with the bloc. One of the sticking points that has emerged predominantly in the debate is the "The Irish filet" It is essentially an insurance policy which ensures that the border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the United Kingdom) and the Republic of Ireland (which is part of the EU) remains open then that the UK and the EU are trying to negotiate their future relations.

But the agreement found opponents on both sides of the Brexit debate, Brexiteers who wanted a more decisive split with the EU and who thought the support was a trap for keeping the UK in relationship with the EU, and those wishing to stay close to Europe or the United States. really do not want to break with the block altogether. In one way or another, they hoped that they would not have to compromise and, by canceling the agreement, they could get out of it.

The staggering loss of 230 votes was an unequivocal rejection of this agreement. And now, members will decide if they just do not trust the deal – or have no faith in May's government.

Corbyn tabled a motion of no confidence that Parliament will debate on Wednesday. (This is different from the non-trust May vote survived in Decemberwhich was strictly within his own party.)

But the bet is risky. Members of the Conservative Party or the Democratic Unionist Party, a party in Northern Ireland that backs May's government, would be forced to pull out. Although they may not like May's deal, they probably hate the idea that Corbyn becomes Prime Minister.

If May loses, there is 14 days to try to form a new government. (May may withdraw, but she does not have to.) If a new government is not formed, general elections would be called. Much of the Labor Party wants to hold a second referendum – a popular vote on the future of Brexit – the party's platform, but Corbyn has resisted and says instead he will renegotiate the Brexit deal.

If a general election were held, it would take between five and six weeks and it is likely that Britain would have to get permission from the European Union to extend Article 50 (the treaty mechanism on the European Union). 39 European Union that the United Kingdom had the habit of removing from the bloc) and save the Brexit deadline.

It's hard to predict what will happen next, but a lot will depend on the outcome of that mistrust. All the experts to whom I talked about the Brexit vote have said a version of the same sentence: if someone says that he knows what will happen, he will tell you deceived.

Given this huge warning, here are some of the scenarios to watch for in the days and weeks to come.

After all this, what will happen to May's deal with Brexit?

Nobody knows for sure. If May survives, it is likely to meet quickly with the EU to see if any adjustments could be made to make the deal more acceptable. The EU does not want a dead Brexit, but one can question its potential for renegotiation.

Michael Leigh, senior official of the German Marshall Fund and former EU official, told me before the vote that it did not seem likely that they would remove Irish support, but that "With creativity and imagination can find a way to provide insurance. "

May will have to present a Plan B to Parliament, and what it presents will be revealing if she tries to get a similar arrangement adopted, got major concessions or has a totally different strategy in the mind.

Parliament takes more control of the process

MPs could try to exercise more control on the Brexit process after May returns to them with his plan B. This means that a very divided Parliament will have to hear on a solution. What seems likely is that they might try to pass a law to avoid a Brexit without agreement. But how they will enact it – whether it's a second referendum or the revocation or extension of Article 50 (the mechanism of the Treaty on European Union that the United Kingdom had the habit of removing from the block) – is not clear, and some might require the approval of the EU.

Britain wins general election

Can face a vote of censure, and if it loses – which, again, is not guaranteed – the deputies have 14 days to try to form a new governmentand if they can not, general elections would be called. Much of the Labor Party wants to hold a second referendum – a popular vote on the future of Brexit – the party's platform, but Corbyn has resisted and says instead he will renegotiate the Brexit deal.

If a general election were held, it would take between five and six weeks and it is likely that Britain would have to get permission from the European Union to extend Article 50 (the treaty mechanism on the European Union). 39 European Union that the United Kingdom had the habit of removing from the bloc) and save the Brexit deadline.

Parliament tries to organize a second referendum

A second referendum is becoming more popular – it enjoys the support of all parties in Parliament, but not the majority. May has resisted such a vote every turn, suggesting that it is undemocratic and effectively cancels the outcome of the 2016 referendum.

Proponents of a second referendum believe that a sufficient number of voters will have witnessed the Brexit disaster and will choose to stay within the EU for a second try. Their case was reinforced by a decision of the European Court of Justice Last month, the United Kingdom declared that the United Kingdom could unilaterally revoke Article 50 and annul Brexit unilaterally, without the approval of the other 27 EU Member States and the EU. as long as it will remain in compliance with United Kingdom legislation.

But a second referendum is extremely risky and we do not know exactly what it would ask for: a vote on the May agreement on Brexit? A leave vote or stay? This would also require an extension of Article 50, pushing the Brexit deadline. And although this is seen as a possible takeover of Brexit, there is no guarantee that Pro-Remaining will get the desired result.

There is always the possibility of a Brexit without agreement

If Parliament can not agree on what to do next, the UK will continue to move closer to the Brexit deadline without reaching an agreement. The government has stepped up its emergency response plans in recent weeks, but that may not be enough to absorb the economic and political shock of this scenario, which would likely include: shortages of food and medicine, stranded flights, ports of entry saved to kilometers, and deployed troops to deal with any agitation.

Article 50 extension

Many of the above scenarios involve an extension of Article 50, which the EU will likely accept if it means the possibility of a second referendum or general election that could change the outcome of the Brexit. This could also happen if the UK and the EU exhaust all other options and end up returning to the May agreement. This is because the approval of the Brexit agreement is the first step – it must be adopted in the UK law, and then the European Parliament must approve it. And that might not happen on March 29th.